Okay…I found the timing of this slightly uncanny.

This week I was finishing off a uni assignment for my Masters in Futures Study. The assignment looks at research techniques (environmental scanning) that can be used to build conceptual models about the future so as to improve decision making.

The same night I was handing it in, a PhD student (Andreas) emailed me to let me know about a new website that’s been launched in Germany, TechForX.

TechForX is like a virtual trading system for people to participate in ‘grading the likelihood’ of possible future outcomes. A fantastic and unique idea, I thought, to create a highly accessible system that permits widespread social participation in building expectations about the future.

Here’s some information about the intent of the program…

In line with the European foresight project EPIS run by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, which aims at predicting long-term developments in the content industry, the non-commercial play-money prediction market TechForX has been launched parallel to a Delphi study.

While in the Delphi a small number of selected experts are asked to judge predefined theses, it is the goal of TechForX to enhance traditional foresight activities by involving a preferably broad public. Thus, TechForX invites every internet user to participate by revealing his / her opinion on a subset of the same theses that are asked in the Delphi. The results will be incorporated in EPIS to improve strategic decision-making of European policy makers. Thus, for the first time really everybody has the possibility to participate in foresight studies and shape the future.

To get an impression on the discussed topics, here are some of the theses that are currently traded on TechForX:

  • More money is spent on internet advertising in search engines and navigation tools than on television advertising.
  • On average, users spend more time watching personalized TV on demand than fixed programs.
  • A value added tax (VAT) for transactions within virtual worlds (like Second Life) is raised.
  • Online self-publication of books (without involving publishing houses) is the predominant way of commercial distribution, even for established authors.
  • Virtual visits to museums over the internet are more popular than physical visits.

On TechForX you reveal your information by trading virtual stocks whose market price can be interpreted as the probability for the underlying claim to come true in the future. The stock price reflects the aggregated opinion of all traders in the market and can be interpreted as a forecast of future developments.

For more information visit the site at http://www.techforx.org